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Ethical Fading

Treat a choice as a technical or business problem, and its moral side can fade from view.

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Around 2012, a mechanical problem turned up in some of the diesel cars Volkswagen sold in America. Exhaust hardware was failing on the road.

VW’s engineers suspected they knew why. The cars carried software that recognized the published drive cycles regulators use on a dynamometer, a set of rollers in a lab. On the rollers, the car ran clean. On the road, it cut back the emissions controls. Now cars were staying in test mode too long on real roads, and the hardware wasn’t built for it.

In July 2012 the engineers explained this to two supervisors, separately. Each told them to destroy the document they had used.

Then the engineers did what engineers do with a part that keeps failing. They improved it. The new version of the cheat also checked whether the steering wheel was turning, which it doesn’t on the rollers.

A part that kept failing

On paper, the problem now looked like a component under stress and a detection routine that needed more precision. What the record can’t show is what the people in the room were thinking. It says the two supervisors understood the software’s purpose and significance, and encouraged keeping it hidden.

Treat a choice as a technical or business problem, and its moral side can fade from view.

Seen through that idea, the question worth asking is whether anyone still discussed if the cheat should exist once improving it had become an engineering task. The record shows that some engineers did raise concerns again, and that in April 2013 the head of engine development approved the new function anyway.

In 2004 Ann Tenbrunsel and David Messick named a pattern like this in a paper, “Ethical Fading.” Through self-deception, they argued, people can act in their own interest while “falsely believing that one’s moral principles were upheld,” and the ethical side of the decision fades “into the background.” They pointed to four things that help it along: euphemisms, the slippery slope of small steps, mistakes about who caused what, and the way people see themselves. Ethics training that ignores these forces, they argued, will do limited good. (Tenbrunsel later built on the idea with Max Bazerman in the 2011 book Blind Spots.) That paper is an argument, not an experiment. The evidence that a frame can shift moral choices comes from experiments.

Sears offers a smaller version. Accused by California in 1992 of selling car repairs nobody needed, it denied cheating anyone, but conceded that its sales incentives “created an environment in which mistakes did occur.”

When a fine becomes a fee

In 1999, the pair had tested one piece of it. In three studies, people faced dilemmas where the question was whether to cooperate. A weak sanctioning system produced less cooperation than no sanctioning system at all. The second study suggested why: the sanction changed what kind of decision people thought they were making, “prompting them to see it as a business rather than an ethical decision.”

A field study in Haifa day-care centers by Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini, also told on the crowding out page, pointed the same way. After a small fine for late pickups was introduced, more parents came late, and the number didn’t fall when the fine was removed. The authors argued that the fine “changes the perception of people regarding the environment in which they operate.”

The effect has limits. In a 2020 experimental game, Celia Chui and Manuel Grieder found that as systems for investigating wrongdoing got stronger, people judged it as more unethical, not less. A rule can carry moral weight. And these are games and day-care centers, not boardrooms.

Retention friction

Imagine a product manager asked to cut cancellations. Her dashboard tracks the save rate. The team adds a third confirmation screen and moves the cancel button under “manage plan.” The save rate climbs. The review debates whether the test ran long enough.

Nobody asks how many of the saved customers wanted to leave and are now paying for something they meant to cancel. The meeting was about friction and conversion, and in that language the question has no place to sit.

One thing that brings it back is rewriting the change as a sentence to the customer: “We made it harder for you to cancel.” Another is asking who outside the room pays for the number going up. Both change the frame.

What the model is asked to predict

Building an AI system means choosing what a model learns to predict, a choice that usually looks technical. In 2019 Ziad Obermeyer, Brian Powers, Christine Vogeli and Sendhil Mullainathan showed how much it can carry.

They examined a commercial algorithm that US health systems used to pick patients for extra care. It predicted future health costs as a stand-in for health needs, and it specifically excluded race. By ordinary measures of accuracy, cost seemed an effective proxy. But unequal access to care, the authors wrote, means less money is spent on Black patients than on White patients. At the score where patients were automatically flagged, Black patients had 26.3% more chronic illnesses than White patients. Removing that gap would have raised the share of Black patients among those flagged from 17.7% to 46.5%.

The authors called the choice of what to predict “perhaps the single most important decision” in building such a tool, and the bias “particularly pernicious because it can arise from reasonable choices.” The manufacturer replicated the results on its own national data. Keeping the same data and training process but predicting an index of health and cost together cut the bias by 84%, by one measure.

This study didn’t examine what the developers were thinking, and the authors described the bias as arising inadvertently. It was a statistical risk score used for screening, not a chatbot. What carries over is the frame. A training target gets filed under settings and judged by accuracy, and the question of who ends up with less care gets no line on the chart.

At Volkswagen, the better cheat reached owners the same way any fix would: as a software update during servicing.

Stories behind it

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Sources

  1. US Department of Justice, Plea Agreement with Volkswagen AG, Exhibit 2 Statement of Facts, United States v. Volkswagen AG, E.D. Mich., January 11, 2017
  2. Los Angeles Times via The Seattle Times, Companies rethink sales incentives after Sears case, July 19, 1992
  3. Ann E. Tenbrunsel, David M. Messick, Ethical Fading: The Role of Self-Deception in Unethical Behavior, Social Justice Research 17(2), 2004
  4. Ann E. Tenbrunsel, David M. Messick, Sanctioning Systems, Decision Frames, and Cooperation, Administrative Science Quarterly 44(4), 1999
  5. Uri Gneezy, Aldo Rustichini, A Fine Is a Price, Journal of Legal Studies 29(1), 2000
  6. Celia Chui, Manuel Grieder, The Effects of Investigative Sanctioning Systems on Wrongdoing, Reporting, and Helping: A Multiparty Perspective, Organization Science 31(5), 2020
  7. Ziad Obermeyer, Brian Powers, Christine Vogeli, Sendhil Mullainathan, Dissecting racial bias in an algorithm used to manage the health of populations, Science 366(6464), 2019
  8. Max H. Bazerman, Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots: Why We Fail to Do What's Right and What to Do about It, Princeton University Press, 2011
  9. US Department of Justice, Volkswagen AG Agrees to Plead Guilty and Pay $4.3 Billion in Criminal and Civil Penalties, January 11, 2017
  10. US EPA, Notice of Violation to Volkswagen AG, Audi AG and Volkswagen Group of America, September 18, 2015
  11. West Virginia University CAFEE for the ICCT, In-Use Emissions Testing of Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the United States, Final Report, May 15, 2014
  12. BBC News, Volkswagen, The scandal explained, updated December 2015
  13. Tampa Bay Times, Sears accused of auto repair fraud, June 12, 1992
  14. Bloomberg, Sears Gets Handed a Huge Repair Bill, September 14, 1992
  15. Stanley Milgram, Behavioral Study of Obedience, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67(4), 1963
  16. House of Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, Combatting doping in sport, Fourth Report of Session 2017-19, HC 366, March 5, 2018
  17. BBC Sport, Olympics cycling: Marginal gains underpin Team GB dominance, August 7, 2012
  18. BBC Sport, Bradley Wiggins wins 2012 Tour de France, July 22, 2012
  19. BBC Sport, Dave Brailsford: Team Sky to take short-term pain for long term-gain, November 6, 2012
  20. BBC Sport, Sir Bradley Wiggins & Team Sky 'crossed ethical line', doping in sport report, March 5, 2018
  21. BBC Sport, Sir Bradley Wiggins says he '100% did not cheat' after damning MPs' report, March 5, 2018