Home › Stories
UK government · 1964-1976

Doubts Retained

In 1964 Britain's new government decided to pull out of Concorde. In January 1965 its minister told Parliament the country would go ahead, doubts and all.

◷ 2 min read

In 1962 Britain and France signed a treaty to design, build and test a supersonic airliner together. In October 1964 Harold Wilson’s Labour government took office, set a review of the project in hand, and decided to withdraw.

Wilson sent his aviation minister, Roy Jenkins, to Paris with the news. According to a historian writing on the UK government’s history blog, the French response was to withdraw all diplomatic communication with London.

On January 20, 1965, Jenkins answered a question in the House of Commons. “We had, and we still retain, some doubts about the financial and economic aspects of the project,” he said. But the Prime Minister had told the French Prime Minister “that we stand by the treaty obligations into which the last Government decided to enter.” The review was over. Britain was going ahead.

Under questioning, Jenkins said the project would cost “at least £140 million of British taxpayers’ money,” and that the government was “determined not to spend the money and then not catch the market.”

The doubts stayed. In March 1969, a month before Concorde’s first British test flight, the attorney general advised that walking away alone carried a “fifty-fifty chance” of “unacceptable costs”, because France could sue for breach of the treaty. Tony Benn, the minister of technology, reminded the cabinet that 16,000 workers were building Concorde, 8,000 of them in Bristol. The cabinet put off any decision to withdraw and planned to slow research and development funding instead.

Concorde flew. It never sold to any airline other than British Airways and Air France. Commercial flights began in 1976, three years behind schedule, at a cost the government historian puts at over £1.3 billion, against an original estimate of £70 million. Benn, who stayed a champion of the plane, joked in his diary about the “e” at the end of its name: he could have added “e” for extravagance and “e” for escalation.

The same year passenger flights began, the Oxford zoologist Richard Dawkins and T. R. Carlisle published a short paper in Nature about a fallacy in how biologists reasoned about parental investment. By 1980 Dawkins was calling it the Concorde fallacy: “investing further in a project simply because one has invested in it heavily in the past, rather than because of potential future return on investment.”

The government’s own papers tell a messier story than the nickname. The reasons ministers wrote down in 1969 pointed forward: a lawsuit they might lose, 16,000 jobs. Whether those were the whole story, the papers cannot say.

Today retired Concordes stand in museums at Bristol, Manchester and Weybridge. Couples have married inside them.

What this story shows

Sunk Cost FallacyConcorde lent the error its other name, the Concorde fallacy. Yet the reasons ministers put on paper (a treaty, a possible lawsuit, 16,000 jobs) were about the future, so the case shows how hard it is to tell sunk cost from real exit costs.

Sources

  1. Keith McLoughlin, Concorde's first British test flight, 50 years on, History of Government blog (The National Archives and 10 Downing Street), April 9, 2019
  2. Hansard, House of Commons, Ministry of Aviation (Concord Project), January 20, 1965, vol 705 cc197-202
  3. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, Volume XXXIV, Document 115, Telegram From the Embassy in the United Kingdom to the Department of State, January 19, 1965
  4. Richard Dawkins and H. Jane Brockmann, Do digger wasps commit the Concorde fallacy?, Animal Behaviour 28, 1980
  5. R. Dawkins and T. R. Carlisle, Parental investment, mate desertion and a fallacy, Nature 262, 1976